A recent poll by YouGov asked people: If you had the choice, would you take £50k, no questions asked, or take the chance to win a million pounds on the flip of a coin?
Most said they would take the £50k.
If you have read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, you’ll know we think quickly, go with what feels right, then justify our thinking to fit our decision. Think slow, and you know the expected value of the bet is £500,000 (probability x the value of the bet). Based on probability alone, you should take the bet every time – turning down a favourable outcome like that doesn’t make rational sense.
Only, that’s not how life works.
We pay attention to where we are, what feels right, and what’s urgent. A likley pay off tomorrow might not be as attractive as paying off your credit card debt, or taking the holiday that you have always wanted – context matters.
It’s why coaching is so important. And anyone can do it. All you have to do is be interested in the worldview of the person in front of you.
Probability matters. Rational decisions matter. But only if you can see the information in front of you – and isn’t that the whole point of coaching?
To point at something and say, I think this matters. What are you noticing?
This week we went barefoot in Sprint Social, because I wanted to give the parents and kids who showed up a new experience – what do you notice?
That’s the job, really. Not telling people the value you can see, or the expected value, but helping them see what they’re actually choosing.
(If you want the fuller version of the “why does context change the maths” idea, I wrote about it here: How scale changes the rules.)
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