When you have economies of scale, the thing you produce gets cheaper the more you make of it. You benefit from the economies of scale. More makes sense.
For example, a factory making footballs: the setup costs £100,000. Make 100 balls, that’s £1,000 per ball just in setup costs. Make 100,000 balls, that’s £1 per ball. Scale drives the price down. You have economies of scale.
Producing footballers is the opposite; it doesn’t get cheaper to produce footballers the more of them you produce—it gets more expensive. The ratio of people managing the system to people actually coaching the footballers increases. Cost per footballer goes up—diseconomies of scale.
At this point, the distinction between luck and serendipity is helpful.
Luck: I need more kids in my program because more kids = more medals. Much like buying all the lottery tickets in an effort to win the lottery.
Serendipity: Create the conditions where good things are more likely to happen.
More kids in more programs (luck) and better conditions (serendipity) make sense. Who wouldn’t want that?
But scaling creates bureaucracy, and bureaucracy kills serendipity. The alternative? Recognise the role of luck and design for flexibility, not control.
Perhaps it’s no coincidence that here in the UK, sport is significantly funded by the lottery, and it’s time to consider what we are paying for.
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